Tuesday, 29 September 2009

LOTO Fever

Who wants to try their luck and see if they can score a jackpot every now and then? Everybody who wants money, that's who. But we're not talking about people who normally lines up in the nearest outlet for a chance to win an ever growing prize.

We're talking about traders like us. When we buy into any stock, don't we try our luck and see if it gives us a jackpot? But there are many who don't know the difference of trying their luck against pushing their luck. So to avoid pushing your luck, let's try something we normally don't play.

LOTO has made a big run most recently and retraced a good chunk of that. When that happened, I thought this one is finished as soon as it just started. Until today...

Since Thursday last week, it has been following a textbook definition of a flag. 2 day pole, 2 days of consolidation, diminishing volume. Sounds like a flag, feels like a flag, smells like a flag. So now what do we do?

Since 16.50 has been serving as a resistance, we wait until 16.75 is hit and we go in. 18.00 is the minimum target being shown to us in this formation. Should this pattern not follow as expected, and we were already into it, 16.00 is the cut loss for this.

So who wants to try and see if there's gonna be a payday within 3 days?

Tuesday, 1 September 2009

Singing to a New TUNA

(Original post can be found in Absolute Traders)

I noticed last week that there were two issues that were moving up out of the blue. The first one was PIP, which we won't talk about. The second, is TUNA.

What I remember from this stock since it's listing is that it has been on the downtrend. Even if its fundamentals are telling you a different story, the price performance is something hard to ignore. Because of that, TUNA has long been relegated to the back of my priority list...until now.

Being a lover of flags, TUNA caught my eye when this has moved for 2 days with a total of 20 centavos. This alone made me sense that a possible pole is in the making. For the next two trading days, it consolidated near 1.78. By this time, I have somehow confirmed that it is doing a flag.

That being the case, I see that the resistance of TUNA is now at 1.78. A break of this at 1.80 can be considered a buy with a target of 1.98. If it turns out to be a wrong move, a cut loss at 1.76 is called for.

But wait! This isn't the only play available in TUNA.

On the longer term, it seems that TUNA is in the midst of a reversal pattern. Whether it is doing a triple bottom or a double bottom, it doesn't matter as both are pointing in the same direction: UP.

If we want to play TUNA for the longer term, we are now looking at the resistance of 1.90. Should this be broken, and I think it will when the target of the flag is about to be reached, volume should come in at 1.92. The new target for this will now be 2.65, giving us a probable 38% return.

So after all other popular issues have already made their move, TUNA is a late bloomer that deserves a second look.

Friday, 22 May 2009

FPH Breaks a Cup

(the original post could be found in Absolute Traders)

Another issue has caught our attention by forming a major reversal pattern.

FPH has been going sideways since June 2008 and has formed what we think is a cup & handle.  The cup started on August 2008 and ended March of this year.  Right after that, a symmetrical triangle, which serves as the handle, also formed.  Yesterday happened to be the day of the breakout.  Based on our estimates, 26.50 was the right time to buy.  Should this surpass the resistance of 30.50, we could probably see this reach the minimum target of 44.25.

The moving averages have already turned bullish with the 65-day moving average above the 130 & 260MA.  At the same time, the MACD has been oscillating above the zero line, giving us the idea that FPH is really bullish.

Should there be some correction for FPH, it might be good to pick this up around 26.50.  Happy bargain hunting!

Recommendation: Buy on correction
Resistance: 30.50
Target: 44.50
Cut loss: 23.50

Wednesday, 20 May 2009

EDC's Worth the Wait

(the original post can also be found at Absolute Traders' website)

There’s still some waiting that needs to be done for EDC but I believe it’s just gearing up for some momentum.

After falling from its high back in October 2007, EDC has rebounded from its lowest point in December 2008, and has reached a high of 4.40 just this April. It is currently continuing its consolidation but this could be a big kick when the momentum shifts.

I’m assuming that the pattern this stock is trying to form is a cup and handle. Assuming that 4.40 is our resistance, and 1.82 is lowest point, we project our difference to 4.40 and we get 6.98 as our minimum target. But since the stock doesn’t move by 2 centavos at that price, I’m readjusting our target to 6.95, not so bad considering that that’s nearly 60% in potential returns.

Our MACD confirms the bullish momentum but has waned from its high. When this stock breaks out, you can bet that the MACD will push itself to higher levels.

Anyone for a cup of tea?

Recommendation: Buy on breakout
Resistance: 4.40
Trigger buy: 4.45
Target: 6.95
Cut loss: 4.35

Thursday, 12 March 2009

The Genetics of a Flag

Despite the ultra-bearishness of the US market, there are still some needles found in this humongous haystack.

Case in point is biotech firm, Genentech, Inc. (NYSE: DNA). Just when most issues have been battered off their highs, DNA has shown resilience by posting a very robust flag in the making. Should it fly soon, I have put my trigger buy at 94.45, projecting that this will have an upside target of at least 105.75.

The opposite of this formation could be found in the stock that recently broke down, Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT). Things just look so bad for ABT that I decided to short sell the sucker at 45.50 since that was my trigger price for something that was so obvious in showing an inverted flag. The downside target is at least 42.30.

Opposing directions, yet the concept is still the same. I hope to get out of these trades unscathed.

Thursday, 22 January 2009

How Dengue Helped Open My Eyes

No one in his right mind would wish to have contracted a disease that could be as life threatening as dengue fever. However, yours truly was a recent victim of the disease. I'm not sure when and where I got it as I didn't notice any mosquito biting me in my lower leg area. But one thing was sure, my body flared up while I was sleeping on Jan. 4, 2009. I wondered how I got the fever as I didn't feel weak days before. I presumed I must've gotten it from my kumpare, Philip as we had dinner the night before.

Since I woke up with a 39 degree fever with a matching heavy head and aching back, I could not and did not go out of the house the whole day. I was quite sleepy the whole day too and I didn't pay much attention to the fever as it seemed like any other fever. What's worse was all the paracetamol I was taking wasn't helping as the fever wasn't going down. My wife was already wondering about it. The following day, I went to work with the fever hardly going down. I didn't feel weak, just a bit sleepy as I did my work duties. I didn't know I was weak due to the fever until I was going down the steps and I slipped, hitting my head on the wall that gave me an immediate headache and neckache at the same time. Since the I still had some fever on the 3rd day, I decided to have myself checked as to what was going on.

While the doctor was examining me, he already was suspecting I had dengue although the typical symptoms were not present. He asked me to get a complete blood count to rule out dengue. What followed next were days of edginess for everyone in the family. The first result of my blood test came out that I had below the normal platelet count (it was 166 from a normal range of 200 to 400). To be sure that this wasn't an anomaly, I had another test done 12 hours later. While the test was still being processed, I went to my office not knowing that I was getting weaker by the moment. I was quite weak that it only came out when I tried to stand up from my seat and I couldn't do it normally. My legs could hardly hold me up, and I felt very light headed when I stood up. But that wasn't what worried me. Starting at around 3pm of Jan. 7, the inside of my mouth hardly had any saliva in it. It was abnormally dry. I suddenly became dehyrdated. I drank a lot of water and Gatorade but my mouth stayed dry. This was when a little panic set in. At the same time, my wife was frantic on the phone. She was somehow shouting at me over the phone that my platelet dropped to 157. Right there and then, I decided I had to confine myself. This was quite serious.

I knew I was going to be in the hospital for a while so before I left, I had to hug my 2 daughters since I wasn't going to see them for some time. Upon entering the emergency room, I had to wait for a few hours as there were no rooms available yet. However, I had to be given dextrose immediately to prevent further dehydration. And then, the long wait starts...

All throughout the time I was confined, I felt fine since I was being given dextrose. I had no fever, no aches, I didn't feel weak BUT my platelets kept on dropping. I was quite concerned when my platelets were below 110 as I knew I was already taking stuff that should help in my recovery yet it had already been 2 days since I was taking them but there doesn't seem to be any effect.

While being confined, it was then that I learned how much I meant to the people related to me. Of course, I did expect my wife and family to do what they can to help me in my recovery. But it was how they helped that showed me how much they love me, and that is actually a rare sight for me to see. It's not that they're ashamed to show it, it's more of with the daily hustle and bustle of life, we tend to overlook these things.

I also learned who were my real friends during my stay in the hospital. Those who I knew were close to me reinforced my perception of them, and some even more so. Too bad that I also learned that some friends who knew about my condition were disappointing. Oh well, we can't have everything.

I was able to get my platelet back up around late Sunday and I was released by the doctor on Monday afternoon. So this post is actually more of people I want to thank while I was sick.

First and foremost would be to the Lord for giving me a second lease on life and opening my eyes to things that I took for granted. Many thanks also to Dr. Fernando Ayuyao for being able to detect that I had dengue and we were able to prevent anything serious from happening. My wife, Irene, my father-in-law, Jose and especially my mother-in-law, Alicia, for doing more than what was expected. My daughters Ayisha and Ashley for welcoming me back home with open arms. My parents, Sabino & Avelina for visiting me daily and giving me my supply of tawa-tawa leaves. My sister, Belina, my brother-in-law, Bobbie, my brother Brenno, and my sister-in-law, Bea, for visiting me in the hospital. My brother Bronne and sister-in-law Alma, for asking how I was doing. My kumpare, Philip and kumare Tina, for cheering me up while waiting for the good news to come. My kumpare Bernie and kumare Madonna for visiting me at home. My kumare Gel for visiting me in between her hectic schedule, my kumpare Junjun for asking how I was doing. My partners, Gwen, Al, and Danny for constantly checking on how I was. Actually a special mention goes to Danny for doing what he can to help me out. Bro, you're really the brother-in-Christ that I'm glad I have.

If I missed out on thanking anyone else, pardon me for overlooking you. I still thank you for doing what you can for me.

I guess I would now start to look at life differently after treading a possible path back to our Creator.