Saturday, 29 September 2007

Make My Christmas Merry, SMPH

One of the slowest moving index issues also happens to be one of more predictable stocks around. SMPH always follows the seasonal rise during the 4th quarter as many would visit their malls to buy items for the holidays. Therefore, it is only right that we take the opportunity to join the bandwagon (if there's any) of buying SMPH in time for Christmas.

Currently, it is consolidating inside an ascending triangle that has a small breach in the middle of the pattern. If I were liquid, I would plunk my money on SMPH at 12.25 and ride it out when it rises up to the target of 14.75. The MACD is already becoming bullish and we see that this is gaining momentum to go higher.

Looks like it will be a merry christmas after all!

Eenie MINI Miney Moe

What a rush! Current speculative favorites MIC & NI are still at it, captivating many traders with their recent runs, especially NI.

NI has been on a tear ever since breaking out of a triangle formation around a week ago. From that time, it has been flagging (is there such a word?) upwards. It is now knocking on the door of 20 pesos and there could still be some momentum for NI to push higher. BUT this must consolidate for the moment for the last run. Otherwise, get ready to run with whatever profits are made here. Remember, the multitude of investors above 20 pesos are waiting to get rid of their holdings.

In the case of MIC, it made the days of many for a little while after it hit a high of 6.60. Unfortunately, the intraday chart looked ugly, closing at the opening price of 6.20, giving it a bearish look. I'm now a bit apprehensive about its run. If I'm lucky and MIC tries to go to 6.80, I'm selling.

May the stock gods look favorably on us all.

Thursday, 27 September 2007

NI Jerk Reaction

Again, interest in NI has caught the attention of many garbagemen. I expected a consolidation for today before it kicked higher. Apparently it was ready to move higher, therefore we saw a 2 peso spread for it today with good volume kicking in again.

Should the DJIA perform well tonight, and the futures are already pointing upward, we may see a spillover to our own market, fueling more buying for practically every hot issue. NI is definitely bullish right now as it has surpassed its 65MA. There's no stopping it now...or is there?

We have to remember that NI came from the 20+ peso level before it sank to levels that turned traders into investors overnight. Therefore, when this returns to around 20 pesos, we should expect heavy posting of selling orders. There are a lot of investors above 20 pesos who are raring to get their money back.

In the meantime, I am still awaiting further appreciation for NI to the 22 peso level. If we're lucky, this can be a jackpot trade. If not, we have already set our stop at the previous target of 16.25 (based on the ascending triangle it broke out of).

Let's get ready for more fast and furious action on NI!

Wednesday, 26 September 2007

Come Fly With NI

C'mon, sing it like Sinatra or Buble (whichever you choose is fine).

"Come fly with NI, let's fly, let's fly away..." Today's action from NI is expected as one of two scenarios: either it consolidates or it rises even further. What is the difference of the two? If NI climbed higher today, I would think that NI has suddenly turned too bullish and is now in a spike. If it became a spike, I wouldn't think twice about getting off this love train. But it is in a consolidation mode. Therefore, I'm now waiting for one more day of consolidation before I can project the upside target of this flag. But it is safe to say that our upside target is 5.25 pesos from wherever the resistance will be. So this would be roughly 22 pesos.

Am I greedy? Not necessarily, as this move is technically justified. But should things turn sour suddenly, I'm ready to take my profit.

More updates to NI as it develops.

"...pack up let's fly away!"

Friday, 21 September 2007

MIC It Real

Interest has returned to MIC after a long while. After breaking out of what is a mere trading range, 3 days ago, it now has formed what would deem to be a flag.

It is now priced around the 130MA, which is at 5.36. The 130MA has also served as support and hopefully MIC won't fall any further. So if what's forming now is really a flag, our resistance for the next trading day is 5.60 with the target poinitng to 6.80. However we should expect some resistance at 6.60 as the 65MA before it can continue. On the other hand, the MACD shows the 2 lines steady while slowly moving higher.

If one would notice, the GEMINI issues are moving again. NI is suspended pending further explanation of their deal. GEO is moving higher but isn't as strong as before. But MIC...this is a possible tsupitero's delight. Should prices follow expectations, then the price should break out very soon giving us at least a 17% rise in prices.

Sunday, 16 September 2007

NI: Rise of the Dead?

Just when I had given up NI for dead, it shows some bullishness in its consolidation.

As we can see in the chart, an ascending triangle has manifested itself onto the scene. Should this breakout of the pattern, a buy could be called above 12.50, where our resistance is. The target of the pattern is 16.25. I would initially put a cut loss at 11.00. Of course this becomes higher as the days go by and the triangle isn't broken.

We see on the MACD that it is still in a rally mode. Should this continue, we may see the fast line move above the zero line.

But a word of warning to the uninformed. Since this stock has low liquidity, you could be in for a Nihaosiao.

Friday, 7 September 2007

The COST of a Diamond

How much is a diamond worth these days? Personally, I wouldn't know as I don't indulge myself in jewelry. However, as a trader, a diamond in the charts would be very valuable, and I think I found one in Costco (Nasdaq: COST).

Upon seeing the long term chart of COST, we see that it has been on a steady rise. It went thru some sideways movement last year, yet it still continued the uptrend...until a diamond showed up. Overall, the trend is still intact and the price has not broken through the least not yet. If the price were to follow the motions of a diamond's direction, then we should be seeing this crash through the support and the 3 moving averages.

Normally, diamonds are found at the top of the trend, as in this case, and it reverses the previous trend. So based on the diamond's height, the target would be beyond the moving averages. A few nights ago, some sales numbers came in for COST and it was disappointing to say the least. This caused the price to gap through the support at $59.92. I was targetting a short sell at $58.72. Should this fall further, the target for COST is $51.70. However, it won't be an easy trip to that target. Here's why. The price is trapped in between the 50 & 100MA at $59.61 & $57.02, respectively. Should COST pass the 100MA, it still has to contend with the 200MA at $54.82.
I believe that the momentum has shifted to the downtrend when the stock was being dumped on the gap down. Add to that, the MACD is now showing bearish momentum and is accelerating to the downside. The fast line has just recrossed below the zero line. This doesn't look good for the bulls.
So how now, brown cow? Those who are still long are advised to take profits, if any, or cut their losses, assuming it's still tolerable. As for the shorters, they're just waiting for their payday.

Sunday, 2 September 2007

Raise the Flag for PCOR

A rare time for PCOR to be showing some interesting signs of resilience...or is it just an illusion? Let's check it out...

What is sure is that PCOR broke through the short term resistance at 5.50 and is currently doing 5.70. What seems to be a flag looks suspect though. There is no significant volume that accompanied the break out. Yet, the MACD has signalled a short-term play as it's rallying from recent lows.

Should the current formation prove to be correct, the resistance is 5.70 and the projected upside target would be at 6.00. Unfortunately, this is too small an upside for me to even get excited.

Hopefully we'll see more issues giving us better signs in the coming weeks.