Showing posts with label PSE Stocks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label PSE Stocks. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

LOTO Fever

Who wants to try their luck and see if they can score a jackpot every now and then? Everybody who wants money, that's who. But we're not talking about people who normally lines up in the nearest outlet for a chance to win an ever growing prize.

We're talking about traders like us. When we buy into any stock, don't we try our luck and see if it gives us a jackpot? But there are many who don't know the difference of trying their luck against pushing their luck. So to avoid pushing your luck, let's try something we normally don't play.

LOTO has made a big run most recently and retraced a good chunk of that. When that happened, I thought this one is finished as soon as it just started. Until today...

Since Thursday last week, it has been following a textbook definition of a flag. 2 day pole, 2 days of consolidation, diminishing volume. Sounds like a flag, feels like a flag, smells like a flag. So now what do we do?

Since 16.50 has been serving as a resistance, we wait until 16.75 is hit and we go in. 18.00 is the minimum target being shown to us in this formation. Should this pattern not follow as expected, and we were already into it, 16.00 is the cut loss for this.

So who wants to try and see if there's gonna be a payday within 3 days?

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Singing to a New TUNA

(Original post can be found in Absolute Traders)

I noticed last week that there were two issues that were moving up out of the blue. The first one was PIP, which we won't talk about. The second, is TUNA.

What I remember from this stock since it's listing is that it has been on the downtrend. Even if its fundamentals are telling you a different story, the price performance is something hard to ignore. Because of that, TUNA has long been relegated to the back of my priority list...until now.

Being a lover of flags, TUNA caught my eye when this has moved for 2 days with a total of 20 centavos. This alone made me sense that a possible pole is in the making. For the next two trading days, it consolidated near 1.78. By this time, I have somehow confirmed that it is doing a flag.

That being the case, I see that the resistance of TUNA is now at 1.78. A break of this at 1.80 can be considered a buy with a target of 1.98. If it turns out to be a wrong move, a cut loss at 1.76 is called for.

But wait! This isn't the only play available in TUNA.

On the longer term, it seems that TUNA is in the midst of a reversal pattern. Whether it is doing a triple bottom or a double bottom, it doesn't matter as both are pointing in the same direction: UP.

If we want to play TUNA for the longer term, we are now looking at the resistance of 1.90. Should this be broken, and I think it will when the target of the flag is about to be reached, volume should come in at 1.92. The new target for this will now be 2.65, giving us a probable 38% return.

So after all other popular issues have already made their move, TUNA is a late bloomer that deserves a second look.

Friday, May 22, 2009

FPH Breaks a Cup

(the original post could be found in Absolute Traders)

Another issue has caught our attention by forming a major reversal pattern.

FPH has been going sideways since June 2008 and has formed what we think is a cup & handle.  The cup started on August 2008 and ended March of this year.  Right after that, a symmetrical triangle, which serves as the handle, also formed.  Yesterday happened to be the day of the breakout.  Based on our estimates, 26.50 was the right time to buy.  Should this surpass the resistance of 30.50, we could probably see this reach the minimum target of 44.25.

The moving averages have already turned bullish with the 65-day moving average above the 130 & 260MA.  At the same time, the MACD has been oscillating above the zero line, giving us the idea that FPH is really bullish.

Should there be some correction for FPH, it might be good to pick this up around 26.50.  Happy bargain hunting!

Recommendation: Buy on correction
Resistance: 30.50
Target: 44.50
Cut loss: 23.50

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

EDC's Worth the Wait

(the original post can also be found at Absolute Traders' website)

There’s still some waiting that needs to be done for EDC but I believe it’s just gearing up for some momentum.

After falling from its high back in October 2007, EDC has rebounded from its lowest point in December 2008, and has reached a high of 4.40 just this April. It is currently continuing its consolidation but this could be a big kick when the momentum shifts.

I’m assuming that the pattern this stock is trying to form is a cup and handle. Assuming that 4.40 is our resistance, and 1.82 is lowest point, we project our difference to 4.40 and we get 6.98 as our minimum target. But since the stock doesn’t move by 2 centavos at that price, I’m readjusting our target to 6.95, not so bad considering that that’s nearly 60% in potential returns.

Our MACD confirms the bullish momentum but has waned from its high. When this stock breaks out, you can bet that the MACD will push itself to higher levels.

Anyone for a cup of tea?

Recommendation: Buy on breakout
Resistance: 4.40
Trigger buy: 4.45
Target: 6.95
Cut loss: 4.35

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Fluc Me

Anyone ever noticed that in the local market, when the price of a stock reaches a certain point, it suddenly changes in increments in its fluctuation? No? Now that you know, did you ever wonder how it came about?

I don't know how or why it came about but definitely it's an aspect of trading that needs improvement. This is one reason why many don't give too much importance to the top gainers or top losers list since many of those in the list happen to be third liners that had a transaction or so that went up or down by one fluctuation. Yet, the fluctuation was quite huge in percentage.

To give you an example, let's talk about OM (I'd rather not but this happens to be the best example). At the current level, each fluctuation is .001 centavos. This translates to roughly 10% immediately, either way. So no one should be amazed that the stock gained or lost 10% in one day.

The pricing of stocks in the PSE needs revisions to make it a more efficient market. We already have majority of people stereotyping stock trading to legalized gambling, we don't need to fuel their assumptions with an outdated pricing scheme.

The system in the US is quite efficient. Every stock, no matter the price, has their fluctuations at 1 cent. Even Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A, BRK.B), Warren Buffett's holding company and the most expensive stock in the US market, fluctuates generally by one cent. This allows true market forces to dictate the real market value of the stock.

If we could apply that locally, this could be a way that foreign funds will perceive this as a way for our market to become more professional. It's possible, but PSE must do a feasibility study on this and implement the rules immediately.

While I'm at it, I might as well write to Santa Claus and ask for a Maybach.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

PSE Trading (Extended Version)

Today, the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) has issued a notice that it will extend its trading by 2 hours (2pm to 4pm) in 2009. This is said to coincide with the new trading system that they will implement (click here for the said item).

Is this good news? Before I answer that, let us try to recall what happened when they tried to extend trading back in 2002. If I remember it correctly, the reason the PSE extended the trading back then was to entice more foreign funds to place their money here. Extending the hours was supposed to address the problem of having different time zones at the same time. After eight months of extended trading, the PSE came up with the same result but with longer hours. In short, it was a useless endeavor. They reverted back to the usual schedule of trading at 9:30am to 12:10pm.

But times are different. The PSE board of directors seem to be more aggressive in capturing a bigger audience to place their money into the equitites market. This is also quite evident with the more frequent roadshows the PSE has been conducting in the provinces. They have also opened themselves to partnerships (official or otherwise) with different entities involved in stock market education, like my friends in Absolute Traders. Clearly, the PSE has a long uphill battle to capture even 5% of the total population. It was noted in a study that out of the nearly 80 million Filipinos, only some 400,000 individual accounts are trading the stock market. I'm not even sure if all those 400,000+ accounts are unique or some happen to be multiple accounts of one investor. So, optimistically, exposure of the stock market to the Filipinos is very minute. A little over 0.5% of the population plays the market. This is very disturbing since other developed nations have a substantial portion of their population playing their own market. The U.S. is said to have around half of the people trading, that includes ordinary housewives. In Hong Kong, even taxi drivers know how to trade stocks. So why can't we do it?

Probably we have to bring ourselves back to reality in order to answer the why. First of all, we have to see how our demographics are. A typical Filipino worker takes home minimum wage. As we all know, minimum wage isn't even enough to get by in Metro Manila. They would need to borrow money somewhere to make ends meet. Second, the typical Filipino is not educated enough about the stock market. Third and probably the hardest problem the PSE has to deal with, is that the local stock market's image is that of a rich man's club. I'm not surprised that many see the stock market as something that only rich people can get involved in.

The PSE is doing its best to address the last problem as this has been there since time immemorial. But I feel that they're not doing enough. They still need to be more aggressive in changing their image and educating the public. C'mon, we don't even have 1% of the population playing the market!

The second problem is currently being addressed by a number of groups and individuals. Ateneo has a tie-up with PSE to include market education into their curriculum. Different entities like Absolute Traders have been educating the public about the stock market in their own way. Slowly but surely, the PSE is getting help from different places.

It's the first problem that is almost impossible to solve right now. It's a socio-economic problem where the saying becomes true: the rich get richer while the poor get poorer. It is one problem every regime that has come and gone have tried to solve but to no avail. I think it's more proper to say that it's a problem they try to solve when it's election time but it gets ignored once they sit in Malacanang. When the Philippines gets to elect a government sensitive to this need and conscientious enough to do something about it shall we see lives improve.

Anyway, I'm digressing from the subject at hand. Going back to the question, is extended trading good news for the PSE? I sure hope so. All things being equal, we expect that there should be an increase in capital that's involved in the market. But that's not a realistic situation, it's an ideal one. I fear that we are just going to repeat what happened back in 2002. But as I said, things are different now. 2002 was in the midst of a long bear market. Interest definitely wasn't there. Currently, we're in a bear market too but not as bad as 2002. Traders are wiser now.

I wish the PSE good luck with this move and I hope it becomes successful. Seriously.

Saturday, August 2, 2008

Scratch That Itch!

It's been quite some time for many of you since you were able to trade and made a profit. Lately it's either you bought some stock for some reason and it plunged or it's a hands off policy on the market. That trader in you has been wanting to get their hands on some issue to trade again. Well don't give in to that pressure. Especially now when the market hasn't turned around.

Yes, there could be some opportunities that are passing us by. However, you have to think, the chances for us to lose money are greater in these times. So you have to choose, would you rather lose the opportunity to trade or lose the money to trade? I think that's an easy question to answer.

Many say that the bear market will test your patience. Yes, I think that's a valid point. But I think they also miss the more important aspect that will be tested. Your discipline. Many overlook this because greed and fear always come ahead of everything else when the market moves. How many times have we seen this situation or be in it: one of the stocks that you were monitoring suddenly surges upward for no reason at all. Thinking that you're missing the boat, you suddenly call your broker or open your online account to buy some shares. You just have to get some of that and not miss out on the action. Finally, you get your hands on a few shares and you have just proven the old adage, that a sucker is born every minute.

When we let our greed rule our head during trading, we lose all focus on the objective. Our objective is NOT to make money first but rather to make a good trade by finding the stocks which are just about to make their moves and then we get in at the right price. The right price is when it just broke out of consolidation and it starts a new trend. Another problem we have about discipline is that we're not satisfied with small gains when we have them. We always want to have a jackpot in our hands and we want it now! Jackpots come once in a while but never all the time. We need to have that discipline in trading where our first objective is to survive. Never mind if we have a losing trade, but we must remember to keep our cut loss price at a minimum and to keep this tight. Any deviation from your trading plan will spell doom.

So the next time you get that itch to trade, check your discipline first and see if the trade will be worth it. Otherwise, here's some soap for you to wash that itch away.

Saturday, July 19, 2008

Naked Gun

Not in my trader's conscious mind (or even the subconscious) would I have ever imagined that the US market was also prone to some of the dirtiest tricks in the book but to a greater degree.

I'm talking about what they call naked short selling. No, it's not short selling while wearing your birthday suit. That's kind of kinky but that's not what it is. For those who are not familiar, short selling is a legal way for traders to make money in a market that's going down. You will first borrow shares (normally from your broker) and then sell this to the market when you perceive that the stock is going to fall. In order to realize your gains when the stock does go down is you buy back what you borrowed to cover your position. This is the legal way.

Naked short selling is simply short selling short but without borrowing the shares. This is the illegal way and this is what the US Securities and Exchange Commission is cracking down against. There were reports that the biggest victims of this practice have been Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE), the two biggest mortgage lenders to the American public. Others have been financial institutions like Lehman Brothers (NYSE:LEH). If you noticed, what's common with these stocks are they are all in the financial sector. This industry has been battered starting with the subprime problem, housing sector, and now every financial institution has been slowly reporting that they exposed too much money in the said areas. Fundamentally we know that's a recipe for disaster and that you would expect their shares to drop. But unfortunately, unscrupulous traders have taken it upon themselves to make money out of the situation without going through the proper channels.

It is for this reason alone, the US SEC is said to be imposing a one-month ban on short selling to prevent what could be a massive collapse in the sector which could spill over to the economy.

On the local front, the timing of the PSE seems to be impeccable. They're just about to introduce the short selling program as another tool to spur liquidity in the market. What timing indeed. It's like kicking a man when he's down. The market is already bearish and when this is now introduced, what's going to stop the shares from falling further?

To my knowledge, not all shares will be qualified for short selling. Only selected companies will be part of this. But I believe these are also index issues. There also seems to be a lack of education regarding this program for the investing public. Our investors/traders are not the most mature, some even qualify to be considered goons. So it's quite dangerous to allow these people access to short selling as they could just sell the shares without even thinking of buying it back at a lower price.

The timing of introducing short selling to the PSE is wrong. All investors & traders must be given a proper education about how to use this before it's launched. Otherwise, you could be looking at chaos right in the eyes and it will be translated to anarchy in the market.

Friday, May 30, 2008

Mallers Rejoice!

It's been some time since I updated my blog and for that I apologize. Unfortunately it was a mix of circumstances which prevented me from posting my studies. Anyway, let's take a look at one of the more resilient local stocks, SMPH.

This index issue has been on a steady downtrend since October 2007. It only started moving sideways this March. What I first noticed when it started moving sideways was the bullish divergence being shown to us by the MACD. This alone told me that something was going to happen in SMPH. Add to that, the sideways movement of SMPH seems like it's trying to form an inverted head & shoulders pattern but that's still a little too early to say since the sideways move is not even over yet.

Assuming that the inverted H&S is what it is, we see the neckline at 8.50, giving us a trigger price of 8.60. Minimum upside target for this points to 9.80. Not bad considering how slow this normally travels.

However, there are some things concerning me for the moment. First of which is the 65-day moving average, which is currently at 8.10. That is also the highest price achieved for today. This proved that for the short-term, the 65MA served as a resistance. Once this is surpassed, the next problem would be the neckline at 8.50. Assuming these are hurdled, the remaining problem would be the 130MA at 9.10, before it should reach its target of 9.80.

Other than this, SMPH seems to be a good candidate to pick up at the moment. Of course, I'd like to be sure that there's significant volume that comes when the neckline is broken before I dive into this.

Saturday, March 29, 2008

Mega Hopeful

After a long wait, if you can call 6 months long, there is finally a stock in the Philippine Stock Exchange that has shown some signs of probable reversal of fortunes.

Megaworld (MEG) is in a sector battered due to problems in their sector owing more to the problematic housing sector in the US. Talk about colonial mentality. Anyway, from what we can see in the chart, after peaking in October, it has been downhill since December 2007. The number of investors in this stock has multiplied. By investors, we mean people who bought high and never sold because it's just too damn painful.

The good news that we see here is that MEG has gone sideways for the past 2 months showing us what looks like a double bottom. It's a little early to call it a bottom anyway, but just in case it is, I've already set my neckline for MEG at 2.65. I'm looking at 3.20 as a minimum target should this breakout of the neckline wiht significant volume.

Even if it's a little early to call the consolidation a bottom, the MACD has been showing me a positive signal with its bullish divergence. So maybe it's just a matter of time before we see MEG flying higher than current levels.

Of course, this is all speculation for now. Until we get a confirmation of a reversal, which is the breaking of the neckline, I'm not calling a buy on MEG.

So have a little more patience my friend. That's your best asset for the moment.

Saturday, March 1, 2008

The Water's Fine

Many issues in the local market have dropped a lot and are currently going sideways. One exception to the rule is MWC.

MWC has been travelling inside a trading range and right now is consolidating inside what looks like an ascending triangle inside the channel. The good part to this is that this stock is still bullish despite the current downtrend in the market. Should this area of consolidation really prove to be an ascending triangle then we wait for the breakout. One thing noticeable about MWC which makes me wary of entering immediately is the bearish divergence showing in the MACD. Could this be telling us that MWC would be breaking down soon?

If it does then, all who have MWC must be careful when it breaks 17.75. We could see it go down to 14.25. If it should breakout, 19.25 is the resistance for this and we see an upside target of 22.50. That's IF it breaks out. Anticipating a breakout is different from anticipating the breakout but buying into it prior to the breakout. Let's not be idiots here.

Let's play it conservatively when the market is still unsure of its footing. Otherwise, if it was a bull market, I'd be the first one waiting when this breaks out.

Thursday, January 3, 2008

The Market Socks it Back to DGTL

New Year! Sorry, I don't think too many people are inclined to add Happy at this point. Still, this blog wishes you the best for the year.

We thought DGTL was like a rocket ship that already lifted off. Turns out that this ship probably had a leak in its booster rockets.


It returned to breach the support at 1.66 momentarily. But this was all the moment a disciplined trader needed to confirm a cut loss. Yes it closed above 1.66 however we need to look at how it performed for the day. The intraday movement wasn't encouraging as it opened high yet closed somewhere in the middle. Add to that that it breached the support.

Will I buy this again? Sure, but it has to be convincingly strong first before I decide to enter again. Buying at a time when the whole market lacked adrenaline is not really the proper time to do it, especially when it closed just above the support but the intraday chart looks ugly.

Be patient. Wait for the right timing. THEN strike!

Friday, December 28, 2007

DGTL Socks It To 'Em

The anticipation was correct, the timing a little too early. I'm talking about DGTL's breakout of the flag. For most of the day, it was stuck between 1.74 and 1.78. In fact, no one expected it to surge in the last few minutes, but surge it did.


The year ended with a bang for DGTL. Just look at the significant increase in volume! To think that I was prepping myself to buy DGTL on Jan. 2, 2008; where I was expecting the breakout to happen. I was tipped off by Broker M that it closed at 1.84 and it was in the run off period. Well, hell, I'm not gonna sulk and say I missed the boat, I'm gonna ride the wave! So I got some at the close. Who knows? Maybe there might be some oops trade on Jan. 2 for this.

But the real play here for me is NOT the flag as the return is quite small, but I'm riding on the breakout of the double bottom.

Again, be reminded that the area of 2.02 could meet some resistance before it proceeds to 2.20. Let's keep the faith and be vigilant of our stops!

Thursday, December 27, 2007

DGTL on the Rise

Yesterday, Dec. 26, 2007, no one was expecting anything spectacular since the whole market was still on vacation mode as many were away from the market or at least their brains were on vacation. Yet, DGTL decided to breakout of the 1.66 resistance to end the day at 1.70 with volume. Today, the close was even higher at 1.74.

Two things have presented itself:
  1. The breakout yesterday is legitimate as there was volume and it cleared the 1.66 level.
  2. The action today is a consolidation of yesterday's move. In short, a flag has presented itself and may be worth playing for the very short term.
As I mentioned, there's a flag. The pole's high was 1.74. Today's high is 1.76. If we were to follow the typical flag being formed locally, the average consolidation of flags/pennants are 3 days. Therefore we expect DGTL to still consolidate tomorrow, with a maximum resistance at 1.78 (just follow the progression of the highs being made).

If by chance, the level of 1.78 would be surpassed tomorrow and there is significant volume again, 1.80 would be deemed a buy, but only for tomorrow. Why? Because if we were to follow the progression and the typical construction of flags, the breakout is expected to be on the first trading day for 2008; Jan. 2. By that time, the resistance would be at 1.80, so we adjust the resistance and targets higher by one fluctuation.

For tomorrow, the target would be 1.90 if it breaks out tomorrow. But since we do expect the breakout to happen one trading day later, then a break of 1.80 is a buy with the near term target at 1.92.

Personally, I still like to get this at 1.68 but I believe that at this point, what with a flag being formed, I find that scenario highly unlikely. Of course, it now all depends on how the major global markets would perform prior to our market's action.

Tuesday, December 25, 2007

It's That Same Old DGTL Feeling Again

Months back, I thought that DGTL was on the verge of breaking out and was going to give PLTL a run for its money, at least as far as the stock price was concerned. Well, that sure fizzled out and left me feeling very disappointed. Hold your horses, here we go again!


1.66 seems to be some area of resistance. I would feel more confident getting into DGTL once this barrier is broken and with lots of volume to boot!

Based on the pattern, I'm looking at 2.20 as my target but we have to be wary of the 2.02 level. There was a previous resistance at that level.

There seem to be two things going for it that indicates some bullishness on DGTL despite its books being in the red. First is the MACD where after months of it hovering in bearish territory, it now is in bullish territory and still going strong. The other would be the moving averages; specifically the 65 & 130-day MA. The 65MA is just about to cross above the 130MA, another bullish signal. As for the 260MA, it's at 1.60, which should now serve as support.

I don't really expect DGTL to kick in during the last week of 2007 as many are on vacation, or at least their brains are. But you never can tell, so unless we want another opportunity to pass us by, let's check out what happens to DGTL in the coming days. It could be a great way to start 2008.

Saturday, December 22, 2007

Christmas Wishes for Everyone in the Local Market

The trading in the PSE has suddenly come to a crawl. It's very obvious that many are already in a vacation state of mind. So rather than force the issue and look for something that's not there, let's be childlike once again and have some good wishes, not only for us but for the markets, in general.

  1. I wish for a PSE where the global investing/trading public would seriously consider putting their money in this market. In order to do this, market capitalization has to be increased at least five-fold. Hopefully, this would reduce the chances that the minority with strong hands would be the one in control of the market.
  2. I wish for brokers to be more conscientious of their actions towards their clients. I'm not saying all of them are crooks. But there are some. Not only should they be avoided, but they should mend their ways. They don't realize that their shenanigans puts back a few decades all the reforms that the PSE has done so far.
  3. I wish for a PSE that is successful in its information campaign in educating the public about what the stock market is all about and how to invest/trade properly. Our friends in Absolute Traders are educating many of those who join their seminars, the pros and cons of investing/trading, but they can only do so much. The PSE must lead this campaign.
  4. I wish for a PSE that would finally implement short selling, the way they do it in the US and not some version that makes you jump through hoops, short of telling you, you're better off not shorting the market.
  5. I wish for the public and brokers to embrace technical analysis as an alternative to the usual style of investing/trading. It's definitely an unorthodox way of doing things but who will complain if it's effective? Of course, there are others out there who find it foolish, idiotic, etc. Ah well, their loss.
  6. I wish for an investing/trading public that is more informed and seeks less rumors. It's an open secret that the PSE thrives on rumors. If it weren't for rumors, our market won't have any activity. It's about time for the market to be taken seriously.
I better stop it here or we'd end up having a list that won't end until the New Year rolls in.

Merry Christmas to everyone!

"...I'm wishing on a dream, to find out what it means..."

Sunday, December 9, 2007

The SUN Will Come Out...

This stock used to be the darling of the PSE. If these days, everyone (or practically everyone) loves GEO, this one used to be known as BW.

This is the only stock I know of that came from the ashes (meaning below 1 peso) and reached an all time high of 107 pesos, without changing par value. As fast as it went to the high, is practically how fast it sank to below 1 peso. With that, it nearly brought the whole stock market to its knees and probably even was close to bringing it to the intensive care unit. The SEC was hell bent to get to the bottom of the manipulation that went on with this stock that they were prepared to shut down the market for at least one month. Well, enough of the background for BW, on with the chart!


What the chart has shown me (and I dunno why I decided to check this out), was that after a sudden downtrend in August, SUN has tried to go beyond 0.75 but has backed off. Recently, it seems to have regained some resilience. What I'd like to see is that this will now retest 0.75 and break it with substantial volume. Once that neckline is broken, we are targetting 1.02 as the minimum upside for SUN. For the moment, the price is caught in between the moving averages and the nearest moving average that is blocking its way is the 260MA at 0.68. After that, the 130MA is waiting at 0.72. It looks like this will take some time before it breaks out.

But we won't mind if it happens to go beyond those MAs and immediately breaks out. After all, it's a sin if we don't act on an opportunity that is presented to us.

Saturday, December 8, 2007

The Omico Ballad

For those of you who played with OM and are still stuck, this song's for you. This is sung to the tune of Unchained Melody.

Click here for the lyrics: http://www.absolutetraders.com/content/view/310/42/

Sunday, November 4, 2007

Be KinD

Many played with BKD before. Some still have it after the time to play it has finished.


As we see in the chart, BKD has moved sideways for the last 2 months. When this breaks out, the proper buy would be at 2.04, with a target of 2.40. Cut loss for now is at 1.86.

What makes me think that the chances for this to move up is good? The MACD alone was enough to tell me that there's probably some more momentum for this to rise. The question is when.

Saturday, October 27, 2007

PERColator and some TA

This has got to be one of the most overlooked issues in the local market. I wasn't in front of my monitor when I got a call from my broker to tell me that PERC has broken out. Being a technician, my usual questions are never, "Why? What caused it to go up?" By the time I'm satisfied with the answer to that question, it would be too late for me to ride the boat. Anyway, the only questions that matter when I didn't notice this was:

1. What did it break out of?
2. What is the proper buying price?
3. What is the target?
4. What is the cut loss?


Turns out that PERC broke out of one of my least favorite patterns: the rectangle. It's so unpopular with me because you have no idea when this thing will make a move. Add to that, the volume won't follow any textbook definition on how typical volumes should behave in this pattern. You also don't have an idea when it will break out.

After I checked the chart (which was way after I bought this at 12.50), I saw that the resistance of the channel was 11.75, therefore the proper buying price was 12.00. The target was pegged at 14.50. The cut loss would be at 11.50, if I were to follow the concept of role reversals.

Too bad, I didn't see this earlier or I would have been able to act on this immediately. Another stock that came out from deep slumber was TA.


Some said this was a cup w/ handle dating back to 2005. I would agree about the rounding bottom from 2005 up to June of this year. I'm just not so sure about the handle.

Regardless, TA made a major move yesterday to break the resistance of 1.82. This was accompanied by the heaviest volume since July 2005. The target for TA, should it continue moving up, is 2.75 otherwise, be ready to cut your losses at 1.80.

Everyone's looking to cash in on oil...