Friday, 28 December 2007

DGTL Socks It To 'Em

The anticipation was correct, the timing a little too early. I'm talking about DGTL's breakout of the flag. For most of the day, it was stuck between 1.74 and 1.78. In fact, no one expected it to surge in the last few minutes, but surge it did.

The year ended with a bang for DGTL. Just look at the significant increase in volume! To think that I was prepping myself to buy DGTL on Jan. 2, 2008; where I was expecting the breakout to happen. I was tipped off by Broker M that it closed at 1.84 and it was in the run off period. Well, hell, I'm not gonna sulk and say I missed the boat, I'm gonna ride the wave! So I got some at the close. Who knows? Maybe there might be some oops trade on Jan. 2 for this.

But the real play here for me is NOT the flag as the return is quite small, but I'm riding on the breakout of the double bottom.

Again, be reminded that the area of 2.02 could meet some resistance before it proceeds to 2.20. Let's keep the faith and be vigilant of our stops!

Thursday, 27 December 2007

DGTL on the Rise

Yesterday, Dec. 26, 2007, no one was expecting anything spectacular since the whole market was still on vacation mode as many were away from the market or at least their brains were on vacation. Yet, DGTL decided to breakout of the 1.66 resistance to end the day at 1.70 with volume. Today, the close was even higher at 1.74.

Two things have presented itself:
  1. The breakout yesterday is legitimate as there was volume and it cleared the 1.66 level.
  2. The action today is a consolidation of yesterday's move. In short, a flag has presented itself and may be worth playing for the very short term.
As I mentioned, there's a flag. The pole's high was 1.74. Today's high is 1.76. If we were to follow the typical flag being formed locally, the average consolidation of flags/pennants are 3 days. Therefore we expect DGTL to still consolidate tomorrow, with a maximum resistance at 1.78 (just follow the progression of the highs being made).

If by chance, the level of 1.78 would be surpassed tomorrow and there is significant volume again, 1.80 would be deemed a buy, but only for tomorrow. Why? Because if we were to follow the progression and the typical construction of flags, the breakout is expected to be on the first trading day for 2008; Jan. 2. By that time, the resistance would be at 1.80, so we adjust the resistance and targets higher by one fluctuation.

For tomorrow, the target would be 1.90 if it breaks out tomorrow. But since we do expect the breakout to happen one trading day later, then a break of 1.80 is a buy with the near term target at 1.92.

Personally, I still like to get this at 1.68 but I believe that at this point, what with a flag being formed, I find that scenario highly unlikely. Of course, it now all depends on how the major global markets would perform prior to our market's action.

Tuesday, 25 December 2007

It's That Same Old DGTL Feeling Again

Months back, I thought that DGTL was on the verge of breaking out and was going to give PLTL a run for its money, at least as far as the stock price was concerned. Well, that sure fizzled out and left me feeling very disappointed. Hold your horses, here we go again!

1.66 seems to be some area of resistance. I would feel more confident getting into DGTL once this barrier is broken and with lots of volume to boot!

Based on the pattern, I'm looking at 2.20 as my target but we have to be wary of the 2.02 level. There was a previous resistance at that level.

There seem to be two things going for it that indicates some bullishness on DGTL despite its books being in the red. First is the MACD where after months of it hovering in bearish territory, it now is in bullish territory and still going strong. The other would be the moving averages; specifically the 65 & 130-day MA. The 65MA is just about to cross above the 130MA, another bullish signal. As for the 260MA, it's at 1.60, which should now serve as support.

I don't really expect DGTL to kick in during the last week of 2007 as many are on vacation, or at least their brains are. But you never can tell, so unless we want another opportunity to pass us by, let's check out what happens to DGTL in the coming days. It could be a great way to start 2008.

Saturday, 22 December 2007

Christmas Wishes for Everyone in the Local Market

The trading in the PSE has suddenly come to a crawl. It's very obvious that many are already in a vacation state of mind. So rather than force the issue and look for something that's not there, let's be childlike once again and have some good wishes, not only for us but for the markets, in general.

  1. I wish for a PSE where the global investing/trading public would seriously consider putting their money in this market. In order to do this, market capitalization has to be increased at least five-fold. Hopefully, this would reduce the chances that the minority with strong hands would be the one in control of the market.
  2. I wish for brokers to be more conscientious of their actions towards their clients. I'm not saying all of them are crooks. But there are some. Not only should they be avoided, but they should mend their ways. They don't realize that their shenanigans puts back a few decades all the reforms that the PSE has done so far.
  3. I wish for a PSE that is successful in its information campaign in educating the public about what the stock market is all about and how to invest/trade properly. Our friends in Absolute Traders are educating many of those who join their seminars, the pros and cons of investing/trading, but they can only do so much. The PSE must lead this campaign.
  4. I wish for a PSE that would finally implement short selling, the way they do it in the US and not some version that makes you jump through hoops, short of telling you, you're better off not shorting the market.
  5. I wish for the public and brokers to embrace technical analysis as an alternative to the usual style of investing/trading. It's definitely an unorthodox way of doing things but who will complain if it's effective? Of course, there are others out there who find it foolish, idiotic, etc. Ah well, their loss.
  6. I wish for an investing/trading public that is more informed and seeks less rumors. It's an open secret that the PSE thrives on rumors. If it weren't for rumors, our market won't have any activity. It's about time for the market to be taken seriously.
I better stop it here or we'd end up having a list that won't end until the New Year rolls in.

Merry Christmas to everyone!

"...I'm wishing on a dream, to find out what it means..."

Saturday, 15 December 2007

Silence of LAMR

No one I know has heard of this company, yet it's one of the 100 issues that comprise the Nasdaq index. This is the outdoor advertising company known as Lamar Advertising (Nasdaq:LAMR). We didn't get to trade it when we knew it was going to go down and we have regretted that non-action as it has dropped to the target price and more.

Currently, LAMR is stuck in a consolidation that now looks like a symmetrical triangle that's pointing downwards. The support that we're looking at is 47.98 and the downside target given to us is a 19% potential return.

All that's left to do now is wait for my trigger price to be hit before I take action.

Sunday, 9 December 2007

The SUN Will Come Out...

This stock used to be the darling of the PSE. If these days, everyone (or practically everyone) loves GEO, this one used to be known as BW.

This is the only stock I know of that came from the ashes (meaning below 1 peso) and reached an all time high of 107 pesos, without changing par value. As fast as it went to the high, is practically how fast it sank to below 1 peso. With that, it nearly brought the whole stock market to its knees and probably even was close to bringing it to the intensive care unit. The SEC was hell bent to get to the bottom of the manipulation that went on with this stock that they were prepared to shut down the market for at least one month. Well, enough of the background for BW, on with the chart!

What the chart has shown me (and I dunno why I decided to check this out), was that after a sudden downtrend in August, SUN has tried to go beyond 0.75 but has backed off. Recently, it seems to have regained some resilience. What I'd like to see is that this will now retest 0.75 and break it with substantial volume. Once that neckline is broken, we are targetting 1.02 as the minimum upside for SUN. For the moment, the price is caught in between the moving averages and the nearest moving average that is blocking its way is the 260MA at 0.68. After that, the 130MA is waiting at 0.72. It looks like this will take some time before it breaks out.

But we won't mind if it happens to go beyond those MAs and immediately breaks out. After all, it's a sin if we don't act on an opportunity that is presented to us.

Saturday, 8 December 2007

The Omico Ballad

For those of you who played with OM and are still stuck, this song's for you. This is sung to the tune of Unchained Melody.

Click here for the lyrics:

Saturday, 1 December 2007

In the Vortex of VRTX

I once played with Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq:VRTX) and made 8% in just 2 days. Little did I know that at that time, VRTX was in the midst of completing a reversal pattern.

As you see in the longer term chart, VRTX looks like it's in the final stages of completing a triple top. What's unusual with this triple top is that the neckline is slanted downwards. This now gives us a possibly delayed breakdown. But once it does breakdown, it's gonna be a long way down. First of all, prices are now below the moving averages. Bearish sign #1. Next, the 50MA is just about to cross the 200MA: Bearish sign #2. The MACD is below the zero line: bearish sign #3.

So given that things look bad, where are we supposed to place our bomb? Definitely when the neckline has been broken significantly.

Based on the latest data, the neckline I see for VRTX is $24.21 as of this writing. The downside target? Hold on to your seats, folks. Based on the highest of the three peaks, VRTX could go down to as low as $5.99. That's a 75% return!

The problem is we have no idea how soon this can happen. But if we follow the maximum rule, then we should hold this for around 2 years. Anyone with that kind of patience?

I don't think I can wait that long.