Mallers Rejoice!

It's been some time since I updated my blog and for that I apologize. Unfortunately it was a mix of circumstances which prevented me from posting my studies. Anyway, let's take a look at one of the more resilient local stocks, SMPH.

This index issue has been on a steady downtrend since October 2007. It only started moving sideways this March. What I first noticed when it started moving sideways was the bullish divergence being shown to us by the MACD. This alone told me that something was going to happen in SMPH. Add to that, the sideways movement of SMPH seems like it's trying to form an inverted head & shoulders pattern but that's still a little too early to say since the sideways move is not even over yet.

Assuming that the inverted H&S is what it is, we see the neckline at 8.50, giving us a trigger price of 8.60. Minimum upside target for this points to 9.80. Not bad considering how slow this normally travels.

However, there are some things concerning me for the moment. First of which is the 65-day moving average, which is currently at 8.10. That is also the highest price achieved for today. This proved that for the short-term, the 65MA served as a resistance. Once this is surpassed, the next problem would be the neckline at 8.50. Assuming these are hurdled, the remaining problem would be the 130MA at 9.10, before it should reach its target of 9.80.

Other than this, SMPH seems to be a good candidate to pick up at the moment. Of course, I'd like to be sure that there's significant volume that comes when the neckline is broken before I dive into this.

Make My Christmas Merry, SMPH

One of the slowest moving index issues also happens to be one of more predictable stocks around. SMPH always follows the seasonal rise during the 4th quarter as many would visit their malls to buy items for the holidays. Therefore, it is only right that we take the opportunity to join the bandwagon (if there's any) of buying SMPH in time for Christmas.

Currently, it is consolidating inside an ascending triangle that has a small breach in the middle of the pattern. If I were liquid, I would plunk my money on SMPH at 12.25 and ride it out when it rises up to the target of 14.75. The MACD is already becoming bullish and we see that this is gaining momentum to go higher.

Looks like it will be a merry christmas after all!