Friday, 30 May 2008

Mallers Rejoice!

It's been some time since I updated my blog and for that I apologize. Unfortunately it was a mix of circumstances which prevented me from posting my studies. Anyway, let's take a look at one of the more resilient local stocks, SMPH.

This index issue has been on a steady downtrend since October 2007. It only started moving sideways this March. What I first noticed when it started moving sideways was the bullish divergence being shown to us by the MACD. This alone told me that something was going to happen in SMPH. Add to that, the sideways movement of SMPH seems like it's trying to form an inverted head & shoulders pattern but that's still a little too early to say since the sideways move is not even over yet.

Assuming that the inverted H&S is what it is, we see the neckline at 8.50, giving us a trigger price of 8.60. Minimum upside target for this points to 9.80. Not bad considering how slow this normally travels.

However, there are some things concerning me for the moment. First of which is the 65-day moving average, which is currently at 8.10. That is also the highest price achieved for today. This proved that for the short-term, the 65MA served as a resistance. Once this is surpassed, the next problem would be the neckline at 8.50. Assuming these are hurdled, the remaining problem would be the 130MA at 9.10, before it should reach its target of 9.80.

Other than this, SMPH seems to be a good candidate to pick up at the moment. Of course, I'd like to be sure that there's significant volume that comes when the neckline is broken before I dive into this.

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